Ocean Freight Rate Analysis July 2026 & August Outlook: US & Latin America Markets

US Market: LAX & New York

US-bound rates drifted lower through Q1 2026, then rose sharply from May, peaking in June–July. On the LAX lane, for example, Cosco rose from about $1,715/40ft container (Feb–Mar) to $6,440 by mid-July; Evergreen rose from $1,812 to $6,512. The New York lane rose even more sharply: Cosco from $2,495 to $8,940, Evergreen from $2,660 to $9,035 by mid-July. These levels track broader market benchmarks: Asia–US West Coast spot rates around $6,700–7,100/FEU and Asia–US East Coast around $9,000–9,100/FEU as of mid-to-late July.

Key factors pushing rates higher:

• Tariff front-loading: this year's peak season arrived unusually early, largely because US importers rushed shipments ahead of the Section 122 tariff expiring July 24 and before USTR opened hearings on a new round of Section 301 tariffs — Asia–West Coast rates rose 120% and East Coast rates rose 85% since mid-May alone.
• Peak season surcharges (PSS) and general rate increases (GRI): carriers added roughly $1,000/FEU from July 1 on the main East–West trades, bringing the cumulative increase to over $3,000/FEU since late May.
• Blanked sailings: carriers cut 10–14% of capacity on the four main East–West trades in H1 2026 to balance supply and demand amid fleet overcapacity pressure (global fleet capacity is projected to grow another 3.6% this year).
• Drewry's World Container Index hit a 22-month high in early July ($4,639/40ft) before easing — down to $4,374 by July 23, signalling the peak-season rally is losing momentum.

Latin America Market: Santos & Manzanillo

Latin America rates swung even more sharply than the US market. Santos spiked in June (peaking around $8,379–8,500/40ft for both Evergreen and Maersk) before easing to roughly $5,979–6,400 by mid-July. Manzanillo moved in a narrower band but the same direction: from a low of $700–1,312 early in the year (a slack-demand period when some weeks saw 40ft priced below 20ft on Maersk) up to $5,600–6,212 in June, then down to $4,200–5,312 by late July/early August.

Key factors:

• Front-loading ahead of US tariffs: Santos port rates rose roughly 15–16% versus June as Brazilian shippers rushed exports ahead of looming new US tariffs; at the same time, Brazil–US export capacity was cut, pushing spot Santos–US East Coast rates from under $2,000 to above $3,000/FEU — evidence of broad-based pressure on the fleet serving the region.
• Manzanillo port congestion: the port is running above 110% of design capacity, with vessels waiting 5–10 days at anchor for a berth, adding up to 20% to logistics costs. The root cause is the nearshoring wave — Mexico has become an assembly hub for the US market under USMCA, driving strong demand for Asian-sourced components and materials.
• Panama Canal draft restrictions: the canal authority cut the maximum draft for Neopanamax locks to 49.5 feet from July 1 on El Niño concerns, forcing vessels to reduce load (each foot of draft cut costs a vessel roughly 350 TEU of capacity). Carriers have begun adding canal-related surcharges: MSC $100/TEU, CMA CGM $320/TEU, Hapag-Lloyd $130/TEU for North America-bound cargo — a cost that indirectly affects routings transiting Central America/Latin America.
• Longer-term overcapacity pressure: carriers are directing 70–80% of newbuild capacity to secondary markets such as Latin America, Africa and India — where demand is growing 10–15% a year — so over the medium term this remains a market with a more competitive rate trend than the main Asia–Europe/Asia–US trades.

August 2026 Outlook

Rate quotes already in effect through early August show the cooling trend continuing in both markets, consistent with the broader market view that the peak season's turning point will land in late July–August as tariff-driven front-loading eases.

• US market: no August quotes are available yet for the carriers in this dataset, but broader trend indicators — Drewry's WCI down three straight weeks through July 23, and carriers (the Gemini alliance) beginning to cut rates competitively in late July — suggest LAX/NYC rates are likely to hold flat or ease slightly in August, barring a fresh front-loading rush ahead of the next tariff deadline (the current tariff exemption has been extended to November 10, 2026, easing the urgency seen in July).
• Latin America market: actual data already shows Manzanillo (Evergreen) around $5,312, Manzanillo (Maersk) around $4,200, and Santos (Maersk) around $5,079 for late July–early August — all below the June peak but still above the year's early lows. Manzanillo is likely to keep facing cost pressure from port congestion and Panama Canal surcharges even as base rates fall; Santos may still have room to fall further once Brazil's pre-tariff export rush winds down.
• Recommendation: customers with August shipment plans should book space and lock in rates early for the New York/Santos lanes (the widest swings), and keep a close eye on Panama Canal-related surcharges for cargo transiting that region.

Methodology and data notes

• Original data source: Sea Freight Rate Query records from carrier systems for the Ho Chi Minh City route to Los Angeles, New York, Santos and Manzanillo, effective January 1 through August 23, 2026.
• Prices shown in this article (tables, charts) are carrier base rates, before any service surcharge.
• Monthly prices in the charts are a representative snapshot from the middle of each month (the entry closest to the 15th) for the 40DC/40HC column, not an average of all rates issued during the month — intended to show the trend, not to serve as an official customer quote.
• Actual per-shipment rates also depend on container type, carrier, seasonal surcharges (PSS/GRI) and the specific effective date — please contact us for an accurate quote for your shipment.